What Will Happen With The Real Estate Market This Fall?

Posted by Kevin Copeland on Saturday, August 29, 2020 at 12:36 PM By Kevin Copeland / August 29, 2020 Comment

What should you expect from Real Estate this Fall? Well, we really don't know. We are in an extremely unusual market right now so we really don't know what's going to happen. What we DO know is that the market is going strong RIGHT NOW and interest rates are at the lowest they've been in years. For us here at Jefferson Real Estate we have not yet seen a slow-down and we are showing record sales this year. Our Brokers are doing everything they can to get sellers and buyers together.

Will prices be this high next year? Will interest rates still be this low next year? Will there be as many buyers next year? Will there be enough inventory next year? Should I sell now or take my chances and wait until next year? Should I buy now or take my chances next year? Consider the following and decide for yourself.

1. Higher Prices

No more than a month ago, the median sales price for existing-homes on a national level rested somewhere in the neighborhood of $253,500 — that’s a 5.6% increase from the same time last year. What’s more, it doesn’t look like that number will be going down anytime soon. Industry professionals and pundits alike are more than convinced the current housing market environment will push prices even higher than they currently are. Namely, the powers that be at Zillow expect home values to rise 3.1% over the course of the next 12 months, and the fall real estate season looks like it will keep the ball rolling. If for nothing else, waning inventory levels and high demand should be enough to maintain the upwards trend.

2. Less Inventory

It’s no secret: inventory levels have been the one factor preventing the housing market from realizing its full potential. There simply aren’t enough homes to keep up with demand, and it doesn’t look as if the fall real estate season will provide us with any answers. Notably, there are new construction projects on the horizon, but they won’t be ready to add to the pool of inventory anytime soon. For now, we are stuck with about 4.2 months of inventory. At this same time last year, the U.S. housing market had somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5 months of inventory, so we are currently trending downwards. For some perspective, six months of inventory is considered to be a balanced market that benefits both buyers and sellers.

3. Relatively Low Mortgage Rates

As I have already alluded to, the housing market is firing on all cylinders, which would explain why the Federal Reserve announced incremental increases to the benchmark interest rate late last year. Quite simply, the market is healthy enough to withstand minimal rate increases that are in line with the recovery. However, rates haven’t risen nearly as much as many predicted.

According to CNBC, “The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of up to $424,100 increased to 4.11 percent from 4.04 percent, with points remaining constant at 0.40, including the origination fee, for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.”

It’s worth noting, however, that while the latest increase is the highest we have seen in months, mortgage rates are still attractively low. At 4.11 percent, interest rates are a far cry from where they were for previous generations of homeowners, but I digress. The Fed is expected to raise rates at least one more time. Even with the increase expected to happen sometime in the fall, rates shouldn’t be too much of a deterrent for prospective buyers.

4. Fast-Paced Activity

Again, the fall real estate season is expected to see a market firing on all cylinders. Of particular importance, however, is the pace in which the pistons will be firing. Due, in large part, to the inherent lack of inventory, competition is expected to be fierce over the properties that are available. As a result, I would expect the average home for sale to receive multiple offers, making time of the essence for interested parties. At the very least, it’s safe to assume prospective buyers will jump on those properties they find that fit their criteria. What’s more, it’s likely that they will do everything they can to facilitate a timely transaction to avoid interference from impending competition. Case in point: “Homes sold in August typically stayed on the market for 30 days. That compared to 36 days a year ago,” according to Reuters. Homes are simply selling faster in today’s current environment, and the fall real estate season could see that number drop even more.

5. More Demand

Despite a rise in housing prices, demand still remains strong. It would appear as if the ground made up by the recovery is enough to offset today’s high prices. If for nothing else, people are simply in a better place to buy homes today than they were even just a few short years ago.

For starters, the unemployment rate has declined in August every year since 2009. The most recent unemployment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics put August’s unemployment rate at 4.4 percent — right around where we were at the onset of the Great Recession. In addition to more people having jobs, Millennials are now coming of age. Expected to make up the largest portion of homebuyers this fall, Millennials are heavy favorites to drive demand in the latter part of the year.

If that wasn’t enough, proposed policies could promote homeownership. The current administration has hinted at the idea of dismantling the Dodd Frank Act, which would make receiving loan approval much easier for many would-be homebuyers. An additional proposal also hinted at the idea of doubling the standard tax deduction for owning a home. Were these proposals to come to fruition, the appeal of homeownership would increase dramatically, even in the face of today’s values.

Stay Ahead Of The Competition

The fall real estate season has become synonymous with the tapering off of summer trends. In other words, fall is when we typically see the market start to slow down, but this year may be an exception to the rule. If for nothing else, the reasons I discussed above should carry over summer’s momentum into the colder months. It stands to reason that those buyers who can identify these trends stand a better chance of realizing success.